The Republican Party is at an inflection point. The party can either move forward with new faces in the 2024 election or move backwards with candidates who have tried and failed to garner enough votes. For some strategists, though, the idea of moving backwards is terrifying.
This dynamic was firmly in play across Congressional races in 2022. The Republicans hold a very thin majority in the House and are just barely behind Democrats in the Senate. In the 2022 midterms, deeply conservative candidates lost in what pundits described as “winnable” races. So, what is the party going to do?
Staying Neutral
As a general rule, the Republican Party tries to stay neutral in primary races and just supports whichever candidate can attract the most votes from the base. However, there’s a growing fear among establishment Republicans that primary voters and general election voters have distinct preferences when it comes to their candidates.
In a broad sense, voters that show up for primaries are “true believers” in their political party. For Republicans, this means that the deeper a candidate is in conservative ideology, the more likely they are to win votes in the primary election. However, this doesn’t always mean that they’ll be popular among general voters.
Picking Winners?
This means that the Republican Party needs to have a reckoning with its own candidates. As such, the Republican Senatorial Committee has reversed its neutrality policy and will start hand-picking candidates it wants to win primary elections to try to steer the Senate races in their favor.
The same isn’t true in the House, though. The Committee will remain hands off going into 2024, which worries some Republican strategists. If a candidate has struggled to garner support in the part, why would they suddenly become the right person for the role two years later?
Extreme Outliers
In no uncertain terms, the Republican establishment is frustrated because some of the most popular candidates in primary elections are also the most extreme.
If the establishment brings the hammer down on these popular but divisive politicians, it would only serve to further split the party’s base and make it even harder for them to win elections. What can the Republican party do? The answer is anyone’s guess, but 2024 is certain to be an interesting year for political observers.
