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Why do the Georgia Runoff Elections Matter so Much?

The 2020 election now feels like a distant memory for some, but one aspect of it has not been fully resolved yet. Two Senate races in Georgia will decide the fate of the legislature in 2021.

The runoffs, which will take place in early January, will have Republicans Kelly Loefler and David Purdue battling to keep their seats against Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. Following the November general election, the Senate sits at 48 seats held by Democrats and 50 held by Republicans.

This means that Republicans need only hold one of the two seats to keep control of the upper chamber of Congress. Such a scenario would be a huge boon to the Republican Party, as it would enable them to stymie and frustrate their nemesis, president-elect Joe Biden.

A Republican-controlled Senate could block Biden from appointing key members of his cabinet, from passing his legislative agenda, and from generally getting anything done.

However, if Democrats pull off the difficult task of flipping both seats in the Deep South state on January 5, they’d find themselves with a 50-50 split in the Senate. This would allow Kamala Harris, the vice president-elect, to be the tie-breaking vote in the chamber. Effectively, this would mean the chamber was 51-50 in favor of Democrats, opening up Joe Biden’s options considerably.

The Runoff Races

Typically, Georgia has been seen as a Republican bastion for decades. However, “get out the vote” efforts have had a sizable impact on the state’s demographics in recent years. Thanks in part to the efforts of organizers like Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, the state flipped blue in the general election for the first time since 1992.

This means that the Senate races are more competitive than Republicans would have expected in prior years, allowing a chance for Democrats to run an aggressive campaign in the state.

Many pundits have noted that the runoff elections might see lower turnout from Republicans due to their party losing the general election. Donald Trump has maintained that he was only beaten due to voter fraud, and his messaging may cause some Republican voters to stay home out of exasperation with what they view as a broken electoral system.

Democrats, meanwhile, are encouraging voters to get mail-in ballots early and to send them in, in advance of the deadline, to have them counted quickly.

With COVID rates surging and January weather sure to be gloomy in the state, Republicans fear that their own messaging about the instability of mail-in ballots could cost them in the runoff elections.